Friday, September 25, 2009

The Fall of Gilbert Arenas. Who Did It? The Butler Did It! The Butler Did It!!!

Note: This is an old post from my Multiply site last November 27, 2007.

Before I resume to my regular blogging (which had a hiatus of a year), I will be kicking things off by discussing what I have been most into these days. Work? Nah… That’s a given. That’s routine. Dude, it’s fantasy NBA! It has just been a month but a lot has happened ever since.

Gilbert Arenas’ Surprise Surgery
This has got to be the biggest news in the fantasy world. Gilbert Arenas – the Washington Wizards’ superstar – had a surprise surgery due to a torn meniscus on his left knee. Arenas was probably picked from Pick # 1-5 in most fantasy leagues. Some experts even ranked him #2 because he has a lot of potential for explosion and upside. He was torching the opponents of his owners’ fantasy teams last year due to his ability to score a lot, dish some dimes and shoot from downtown. His position at point guard is very valuable too as it is one of those rare positions to fill up. A lot of fantasy owners prefer to fill up either the PG or the PF/C positions early in their drafts. He is also in his contract year so there are lots of expectations that he will perform better. Basketball players tend to have better results in their contract years. Think Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis last year. In short, Gilbert was your perfect top five fantasy pick. Yeah, so for all the owners who got him, BURN!!! Where’s your superstar now? Hey, wait a minute… I have Gilbert Arenas. Not only do I have him, he was in my most important league (because there was money involved). Damn you, Gilbert! Give me back my PhP 500! He used to be known as Agent Zero with the tagline “from zero to hero”. It looks like he is going back to zero now… giving me zero stats.

With each star player’s demise, there is a blooming chance of opportunity for another player. Gilbert’s minutes have now been passed to Antonio Daniels who has the propensity to produce more dimes than him. Furthermore, Daniels won’t kill you in FG% and TO’s as much as Arenas does. The problem is, I don’t know if you can deal the decrease in points, 3PM and FT%. Antonio Daniels is a nice add to your team but is not sufficient to compensate Agent Zero’s stats. Nevertheless, I will take him any day in this kind of scenario. Like what I read in a fantasy article, Washington did not give up when they lost Arenas to injuries last year and this year, why should I give up this early?

As a result, I hurriedly picked up Antonio Daniels in my fantasy leagues. I was fortunate to get him in the league that I had Arenas before it was too late. All in all, I was able to get him in 4 of my 5 leagues. Ain’t bad, right?

The Butler did it! The Butler did it!
Antonio Daniels was not the only beneficiary of Gilbert Arenas’ injury. The others were Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler. So far, it was Caron who exploded more. I have learned to love Wahington’s version of Big Three ever since last year. Thus, I was having either Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler or Antawn Jamison in my fantasy teams this year. I can remember our Day One in the ERP League Draft when I got Caron Butler in Round Three and felt happy for it. I told my friend that Butler will win it for me. His market value was not that high going to this year’s draft because he got injured in the latter part of last season. A lot of fantasy owners forgot how strong he was last year. He was at the Top 15 before he got injured. He was potential realized. You got to love his percentages, rebounds and steals. Add to that the fact that he is just young. He’s got a lot of upside. When I watched the NBA Fantasy Hoops awhile ago, Caron Butler was ranked #1 in this year’s Fantasy MVP. Of course, LeBron is this year’s top fantasy player but the ranking on Fantasy Hoops was based on players not drafted in the 1st round. Told ya!

Told ya! The problem is, our draft got restarted and I suddenly had the chance to draft Rashard Lewis in Round 3. What the… he has Round 2 value! So I snagged him and left Caron Butler to the others. Nevertheless, I had Caron Butler in my other two fantasy leagues. The result? I was # 2 and # 4. Those were the best ranks that I had. In fairness, I had Antawn Jamison in the league I passed on Caron Butler. I also had Jamison in another league after I traded Jason Terry for him.

The Lakers might have been feeling bad now for trading Caron Butler seasons ago. They should have had their version of Big Three.

Grand Theft Roto
Buy low, sell high. That’s my motto of the year in fantasy NBA. It just works the same as stocks work. You have some players performing above expectations? Sell them high! Sell them before they fall back to where they were. Other teams have underperforming studs? Get them NOW! Yes, before they wake up from their senses that they need to play better after they received their huge paychecks. So far, I have had experiences of doing such. Best instance would be my fantasy team in a Competitive Public Head-to-Head League.

Should this be named Grand Theft H2H? Nah! Grand Theft Roto sounds awesome. By the way, I got this from the weekly article in ESPN.com.

This was how it went. I was situated as the 11th pick in our fantasy league and I was able to get the following players in draft day:
Round 1: Pau Gasol (PF/C)
Round 2: Chris Bosh (PF/C)
Round 3: Deron Williams (PG)
Round 4: Carmelo Anthony (SF)
Round 5: Ricky Davis (SG/SF)
Round 6: Mo Williams (PG)
Round 7: Zydrunas Ilgauskas (C)
Round 8: Rudy Gay (SG/SF)
Round 9: Al Horford (PF/C)
Round 10: Darko Milicic (PF/C)
Round 11: Marvin Williams (SG/SF)
Round 12: Brevin Knight (PG/SG)
Round 13: Zaza Pachulia (C)

Big lineup with good FT% (except for Darko’s but that is negligible). I never had a strong frontline in my fantasy leagues this year except for this one. My place in the draft picks allowed me to have great big men. It is, as I say, excellent because having a lot of big men is very rare as we have a scarcity of quality power forwards/centers. Add to that the fact that this is a two-center league. Having a lot of big men allowed me to have more trade opportunities. I guess my only mistake in here was I took Chris Bosh instead of Dwyane Wade (SG) in Round 2.

Nevertheless, I had a good lineup. What made it better were my trades. Ricky Davis had a strong first game as a Miami Heat player so I was able to deal him for Caron Butler (SF) who was struggling with his turnovers then. You know what the result was. Caron Butler is now a top 15 fantasy stud while Ricky Davis is worse than a Round 5 value. The fantasy owner might have been reading too much of Rick Kamla’s hype on Ricky Buckets. I lost Week 1 with a 3-6 record but it was just ok because I got a better player after that week. I also picked Rajon Rondo (PG/SG) that week after an owner gave up on him. However, that was on the expense of Marvin Williams. Nonetheless, I like having a lot of PG’s in my lineup and with Mo Williams struggling, I needed Rajon Rondo. I also got Damien Wilkins from the waiver wire and it was time to say goodbye to the injury prone Brevin Knight. Week 2 became better for me. I ended up with 7-2 and I was able to deal Big Z for Tyson Chandler. I just don’t think that Ilgauskas will keep his numbers. Furthermore, I was struggling in blocks as Gasol and Bosh were underperforming. I kept them in my lineup amidst of that because they are elites. Buy low, sell high. Don’t sell low!

An owner dropped Martell Webster so I picked him for Damien Wilkins. Damien is a good player in the young Seattle lineup but I think Martell is more consistent. There were times when I felt that this was a bad move but Martell Webster exploded these past two weeks so I think it was worth the pickup. Then came my big trade. I am fond of having players with lots of upside but I had to sacrifice some in order to get the sure ones. I dealt Melo, Rajon and Al for Chauncey Billups (PG) and Gerald Wallace (SF/PF). It feels bad to let go of Alfred Horford and his unlimited upside but I needed sure assists from Chauncey and I wanted to seal my steals and blocks with Gerald Wallace. My past two trades strengthened my blocks and weakened my freethrows. Nevertheless, it is wiser for me to make blocks the sure category than concentrate on freethrows with my big lineup. Because it was a 2 for 3 trade, I was able to pick up Sean Williams from the waiver wire. Sounds nice, right?

But then, I made a boo-boo and dropped Sean Williams once Luis Scola had his two 20-point performance. I just thought that Luis Scola is assured of minutes as compared to Sean Williams who might lose his once Nenad Krstic comes back to the Nets’ rotation. I had a sucker of a Week 3 as I received another 3-6 result. But then, that was before I had Gerald and Chauncey in my lineup.

Week 4 was the time when I started reaping the fruits of the 2 for 3 trade. I went 8-1 despite of the fact that Darko Milicic was not playing, Deron Williams, Gerald Wallace and Tyson Chandler missed at least one game apiece. In addition to that, I was able to snag Antonio Daniels from the waiver wire. Time to say goodbye to Zaza.

It is now Week 5 and I have started the week right as I am in pace for another 8-1. In addition to which, I was able to get Gilbert Arenas from the waiver wire because a frustrated owner dropped him (WTF?!). It is just so cool to have a lineup like this:
PG – Deron Williams
SG – Rudy Gay
G – Mo Williams
SF – Caron Butler
PF – Pau Gasol
F – Gerald Wallace
C – Chris Bosh
C – Tyson Chandler
Util – Chauncey Billups
Util – Darko Milicic
Bench – Gilbert Arenas
Bench – Martell Webster
Bench – Antonio Daniels

I still have a three PG lineup for the assists, steals, 3PM and FT% and these PG’s are no jokes at all. Deron and Chauncey are both elite while Mo Williams is usually a 2nd PG who’s got great upside. In addition to that, I have three strong big men for the FG%, rebounds, blocks. Two elites and a strong 2nd C. SF is well backed up as well because I have Gerald Wallace and Caron Butler. Rudy Gay’s upside would be the icing to the cake. If Gilbert plays at the latter part of the season, I just don’t see this team losing.

That’s all for my fantasy buzz this week.

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