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| Let's get ready to... draft! | Credit: The League |
It has been awhile since I last wrote about fantasy sports. It has been two years. Since it is fantasy season again, I think it is time to discuss this geeky topic.
Oh wait, the NBA is on a lockout. There is no fantasy basketball yet? Aww, man!
Because of the lockout (and boredom/laziness to find a more physical hobby), I decided to try fantasy NFL. It has a little audience in the Philippines because Filipinos are not avid NFL viewers – we do not have NFL in cable TV. Heck, fantasy baseball is not even played by my friends even if it the sport is shown daily in ESPN. But because I love numbers, the thrill of drafting players (as pathetic as it sounds, there is some self-fulfillment when I manage to get a great fantasy team because of my competitive nature) and I want to listen to podcasts about fantasy football, I tried the game.
It took me two to three years to join a fantasy basketball league. I was hesitant to join a fantasy football league until the lockout was over. It is because it would be a struggle. I do not know a lot of football players. If you play any fantasy sport, not only should you know the elite players, you should have an idea on who are the potential stars and the depth charts of cellar dweller teams. Even if you are an avid sports fan, your strategy in fantasy is largely different if you are trying to evaluate who are the better players in real life. Role players who contribute intangibly in winning teams do not matter in fantasy sports. In fantasy, you do not care if the player is a choker or disappears in fourth quarters. As long as he delivers considerable statistics across the board, you pick him as part of your team.
So far, I have been in multiple football drafts lately. I have tried mock drafts just to get a better feel (to be honest, mock drafts are way more challenging than actual drafts). I think I am doing well, but because it is my first year, I cannot fully say if I will end up a good fantasy football owner or not.
Regardless of what happens, I am sure of one thing: I have a strategy and I think that it makes sense. These things get polished along the way. Experience obviously teaches more than hypothesizing. When I had my first draft, I forgot to draft a tight end. Thus, I scrambled to get one right away. I eventually noticed that I should not have rushed because people either pick one of the top five elite tight ends or they just wait it out at the end.
OK, I promised not to get too technical on fantasy sports. This write-up is meant to discuss my current strategy on how I handle my fantasy teams (and some real life reflections). If you do not play any fantasy sport but are willing to try playing, then you may want to consider reading the rest of my article. It is not as tough as you might think it is.
Why am I giving out my strategy? I have always been secretive on some of my fantasy strategies to the point where this had to happen in one of my fantasy draft leagues before:
Me: Hey, Player X is still available. No one wants to draft him?
Me: Thanks, man!
One of my Leaguemates: Jeff, so that’s your strategy, huh? You mention the players you don’t want to pick?
Hmmm… in some ways, yes. But, not all the time. Yes, I admit that I do not like giving away my strategy. But for the sake of the newbies or people who want to play fantasy sports, I am willing to impart some knowledge. After all, I got a lot of help from my college friends when I began playing fantasy NBA that was why I was able to start out strong in my first league. I reached the playoffs then got eliminated because I forgot to make Antawn Jamison a starter in the playoffs.
Without further ado, here are my tips:
Tip #1: As much as possible, stay away from your favorite player unless it is the right time to draft him.
This advice would appear to be a joke because I drafted LeBron (back when I was a LeBron fan) as my first pick in my very first fantasy NBA league. In my first NFL draft, I drafted Aaron Rodgers. However, note the ‘unless it is the right time to draft’ in my statement. When I drafted LeBron, he was the consensus first pick that year. When I picked Aaron Rodgers this year, I got him in the second round (whereas he is a consensus first round pick). In my money leagues, the only time I got to draft Deron Williams was when he was an underrated sophomore (8th round pick). I never reach for my favorite players.
The main reason why I do not reach for my favorite players is that, this is about statistics. A lot of fantasy players have the tendency to pick their favorite athletes way ahead of time. The result: their team is a disaster. For newbies, to find out if it is the right time to draft, there is already a preset rankings on every fantasy draft. This is to avoid imbalanced teams.
Tip #2: Read, Research and Seek for Advice
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| If you have to ask fantasy advice from a whore, go do it | Credit: The League |
If you have no time, my best advice is to do what I currently do: download podcasts. Using your iPod, listen to it while driving to your office/school. It will give you a good laugh and would lessen the stress when being stuck in traffic. Plus, you get to do two things all at once. Hey, we live in a multi-tasking world these days!
Seeking advice from friends is also good. After all, fantasy is for fun. I maybe secretive in fantasy but I am always helpful in suggesting when I am not in the same league as the person who is asking for advice.
Tip #3: Check the historical numbers.
As much as we love to have sleepers in our fantasy team, you would want to rely on historical numbers. This advice is more applicable in fantasy NBA where a lot of the stats are consistent and there is a huge number of games where players’ stats get to balance out eventually. Based on experience, players in the same team who perform badly in the early going would tend to improve eventually. There is such a thing as law of averages.
Tip #4: Avoid picking players that are sharing their time with other players.
In real life, you would be psyched if you see good players substituting each other on the same position. Time shares are major buzzkills in fantasy. For some fantasy analysts, the best statistic is playing time. Although, I do not always subscribe to that theory, it does make a lot of sense. How can a player score points if he is not playing? I would rather pick a sixth man than time sharing players.
Tip #5: Use the preset rankings and avoid reaching.
This is probably closest to my current golden rule in fantasy. No matter how nooby you are, you will be able to do well if you do not reach a lot. Also, the reason why I use the preset rankings is because it has the psychological effect to the rest of your league mates. Unless you are drafting against experts, certain good players that are undervalued in the preset rankings. You would want those but if it is feasible for you to pick them in a later round, wait for it. Although if the player has huge buzz and he seems legit, by all means pick him.
Tip #6: Positions matter but as much as possible, pick the best player available.
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| You should pick Adrian Peterson if you have the No. 1 overall |
Tip #7: Balance your team with injury prone and healthy players.
No one can predict injury. Marcus Camby was known to be riddled with injury but he was able to play a lot of games since the time I played fantasy. A healthy player can go down unexpectedly. However, injury prone players have a higher chance of getting injured so you have to surround them with historically healthy players. It also good to pick injury prone players because these are usually undervalued significantly in draft rankings. Just do not overreach for them.
Tip #8: Listen to Talented Mr. Roto, but not all the time.
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| Matthew Berry a.k.a. Talented Mr. Roto said not to draft Cedric Benson | Credit: his Twitter avatar |
Analysts help a lot in fantasy sports. However, you must take their picks with a grain of salt. Every year, they pick a horrible player on a very early draft position. There are lots of experts and they all have differing opinions so there is no definite thing. Some of them are bound to pick badly. At the end of the day, all they do is pure speculation. This reminds me of one of the scenes in “The League.” One of the fantasy players in there likes to follow expert advice without even deciding for himself. I admit that I am sometimes like that, but in fantasy, you have to be flexible. In drafts, it is important to be flexible without relying too much on the rankings. Unfortunately for newbies, this is the part where you need experience.
Tip #9: Check for good waiver pickups during the rest of the season.
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| Landry Fields was one of the decent sleepers last year | Credit: NBA |
The idea in this tip is: if you want to succeed in fantasy sports, you should continue checking your teams on a regular basis after the first month. During the start of every fantasy season, people are hyperactive. I rarely get a good player off the waiver during the first month. This is because I do not rush to pick/change my lineups. When the season hits its second month, start expecting people to lose their desire to be hyperactive. And there, my friends, is the time you hit the waivers. You may have lost the opportunity to get the waiver gold players in the first month, but you must remember that teams are still adjusting at the start of the season. More often than not, the coaches replace that awesome fantasy pickup that the fantasy owners rush-grabbed in the first month.
You do not need to rush just to get good pick-ups in the second month (unless you are in a pro league, which I assume, should not be a case if you are a newbie). All you need to do is, check your leagues/news on a regular basis. Ten minutes per day/every other day ain’t so bad.
If you did not pick someone in the waiver during the first week, chances are those who rushed have too much good talent in their roster that they are unwilling to give up during the second month. I know the counter argument in that scenario is, “why not be like them and load up on talent early on?” My response to that is: “First month is the adjustment period. A lot of those ‘talented players’ will soon be benched/are about to struggle because they were early flukes.” Last year, I lost out in grabbing Toney Douglas in the early goings. He was red hot in threes and steals then. After a few weeks, Landry Fields became a starter. I grabbed him. Douglas, on the other hand, lost his touch and was benched. Guess who was the starter for most of the year. Landry Fields.
Tip #10: Have fun.
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| Have fun! This is what you get for losing a side bet. A naked wife | Credit: The League |
That’s it. You should be good to go.
Since I mentioned about my fantasy football leagues, Here are two of my fantasy football teams:
Ten Team PPR League: (by order the players were picked in the draft)
RB – LeSean McCoy – had to pick him because he is great in PPR format
WR – Calvin Johnson
WR – Miles Austin
TE – Antonio Gates – best TE and I love picking elite TE’s
QB – Tony Romo
WR – Percy Harvin
WR – Sidney Rice – loaded up on WR’s because it is a 4 WR league
RB – Shonn Greene – steal
WR – Julio Jones – reach
RB – Tim Hightower – was still available at 10th round. You won’t be able to pick him there now
WR – Roy Williams
RB – Danny Woodhead
D/ST – New England Patriots – Homer pick
WR – Jerome Simpson
WR – Davone Bess
K – Stephen Gostkowski – Homer pick
RB – Roy Helu – if Shanahan gives him PT, this will end up as my best late round flier
Ten Team Standard League: (by order the players were picked in the draft)
RB – Adrian Peterson – yeah, man! I got him even if I was picking third
RB – LeSean McCoy – ideally, I shouldn’t be picking RB2 early on but this was a steal at late 2nd round
QB – Tom Brady
WR – Dwayne Bowe – in retrospect, this was not that good of a pick
TE – JerMichael Finley – I need the elite TE’s, right?
WR – Brandon Lloyd – bargain at the sixth. He was the best last year
WR – Santonio Holmes – good way to round up my wide receivers
WR – Austin Collie – strong upside. If he does not deliver, he is a bench guy anyway
RB – Fred Jackson
WR – Pierre Garcon – if Collie gets injured, Garcon can give some points
RB – Ryan Williams – injured for the rest of the year. I replaced him with Danny Amendola (WR)
RB – Michael Bush – if Run DMC falls, watch out!
WR – Malcolm Floyd
D/ST – Detroit Lions
K – Neil Rackers – this guy is ranked high, I don’t know why he was still available in the last round.
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