Predictions, whether these be logical or not, are always done by bloggers who love to analyze. We make crazy predictions (like the Tim Urban thing) and well-calculated ones (doing an NBA playoff bracket and picking LA Lakers to reach the NBA Finals last year). After all, it is fun. We discuss among our friends and we make bold predictions so that we get the bragging rights of guessing it if in case it comes true. Others even put it to the next level by betting on it. I can attest to that after I lost some cash after betting on the Lakers in the 2008 NBA Finals. Predicting the outcome of something is fun, especially if you put some well-thought analysis to back it up. But in some cases, these things do not come true no matter how logical it seemed then. Analysts and columnists ate their words after Cleveland lost to Orlando last year. A lot of fans were enraged after Kris Allen unexpectedly won American Idol last year. Haters who underestimated Duke were crushed when the Blue Devils won the NCAA tourney this year. But, do you see writers in sports columns write about their failed predictions after all has been said and done? I am an avid reader of ESPN.com and I must say that these are rare instances.
Writers can pretty much throw their confident conclusions on how things will unfold. Of course, there is nothing wrong in speculating on the future. The discussions that are brought forth from their columns are what matter anyway. Nobody knows what will happen that is why the games are played. The buzz makes it fun. However in this writeup, I will discuss some predictions I made and their results.
If you ever thought that I was cocky and confident whenever I make bold statements in my blogs (of course, that is my style to spice things up), well then this is the time for you to gloat as I will eat up some of my words. Or, maybe not.
2009 UAAP Predictions
Final Four: Ateneo, FEU, UE, La Salle. I stated that I believed in DLSU’s system but I won’t be surprised if they fail. When I made this prediction, the final four cast appeared to be predictable. No cellar dweller team improved then while Ateneo and FEU retained most of their star players. I was skeptical of UE’s chances but which team was going to topple them, anyway? UST? The Growling Tigers lost Jervy Cruz. That was why I was confident that La Salle could pull it off.
What Actually Happened: Ateneo, FEU, UE, UST. Who would’ve known? Does the Ewing Theory apply to Jervy Cruz? Hmmm… actually, no. UST won the championship with Jervy and they did not really improve in 2009. DLSU was just suckier. Did not see it happen, but you know what? This is one of the times when I was happy to be wrong. Score: ¾
Finals: Ateneo and FEU. It was a no brainer for me.
What Actually Happened: Ateneo and UE. Not only did UE surprise us by beating FEU twice, they even defeated Ateneo with a huge lead in Game 2 of the Finals. I would have eaten my words if UE won. Nevertheless, I will not credit myself for getting the other half wrong. Score: 0. Cumulative Score: ¾
Fantasy NBA
I made a lot of comments in here because I was drunk when I blogged about it (and I did not know who picked which to avoid biases). I chose some of my predictions and I will give myself ½ point for every correct one and -1/2 point for every incorrect one.
Prediction: Ray Allen is going to have a better year than Paul Pierce. My reasoning behind this one is that RayRay is on a contract year.
What Actually Happened: Ray Allen - 80 Games, 16.3 PPG, 47.7% FG, 91.3% FT, 1.8 3PM, 3.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.6 TOPG, 0.8 SPG, 0.3 BPG; Paul Pierce – 71 Games, 18.3 PPG, 47.2% FG, 85.2% FT, 1.5 3PM, 4.4 RPG, 3.1 APG, 2.3 TOPG, 1.2 SPG, 0.4 BPG. They pretty much have similar stats. The extra nine games of Ray Allen are very impactful but Pierce beat him in more categories (yes, even in the %s because Ray attempts fewer per game). Score: 0 (Allen did not beat Pierce and vice versa)
Prediction: Did not like Mehmet Okur’s chances because of the Boozer-Millsap situation.
What Actually Happened: Okur’s stats regressed this year except on blocks per game. Score: ½; Cumulative Score: 1 ¼ points
Prediction: LaMarcus Aldridge – Bad rebounds last year (7). I don’t see it improving.
What Actually Happened: 8 rebounds per game. It improved. Yes, Oden’s and Przybilla’s injuries helped but I always account injuries in my fantasy predictions so I am munching my words now.
Score: -1/2; Cumulative Score: ¾
Prediction: Emeka Okafor at Round 4 - Another case of quite early pick. Big men are overrated.
What Actually Happened: Not only did Okafor fail to match last season’s numbers, he also struggled in scoring (10.4 PPG… WTF). Score: ½; Cumulative Score: ¾
Prediction: Al Horford at Round 5 - Good example of a good reach. I think he will improve this year.
What Actually Happened: He improved a bit. More games. From 11.5 PPG to 14.2 PPG. Freethrows and rebounds slightly improved but blocks regressed by 0.3. I am not receiving credit for this.
Prediction: OJ Mayo at Round 6 - Good steal in my opinion. Memphis loves Mayo and AI has not practiced yet. The only loser in there is the Memphis owner.
What Actually Happened: His numbers were actually similar to last year’s but I was right in saying that he will get the nod over Iverson and the only loser was their owner. Score: ½; Cumulative Score: 1 ¼
Prediction: Blake Griffin at Round 7 - Sweet pick. This kid will surely produce!
What Actually Happened: He never produced. Did not even play a single game. Score: -1/2; Cumulative Score: ¾
Prediction: Joakim Noah at Round 8 – Big Year Ahead.
What Actually Happened: Breakout year for Joakim. He improved in points (+3), rebounds (+3.4), assists (+0.8). Fewer games but he definitely generated awesome numbers. Score: ½; Cumulative Score: 1 ¼
Prediction: Nate Robinson at Round 9 - Awesome pick. I hate Nate as a player but fantasy-wise, he is great as long as you did not pick him for assists.
What Actually Happened: Nate definitely sucked. He sucked twice as much as the previous season so I will deduct twice as much from my total score as well. Cumulative Score: ¼
Prediction: Brandon Jennings at Round 11 - Milwaukee’s scoring is a huge ? except for Redd.
What Actually Happened: Redd was the ? while Jennings scored. Cumulative Score -1/4
Prediction: Stephen Curry at Round 13 - Intriguing keeper but I do not like him because there are too many wingmen.
What Actually Happened: Top Ten Fantasy Player this year. I can still remember how amazing a prospect he was going to the NBA Draft last year. It diminished when I learned that Don Nelson will coach him. However, I did not see Nellie trusting this kid a lot. Biggest steal in fantasy this year. Cumulative Score: -3/4
American Idol
Prediction: Didi Benami is the dark horse of the year.
What Actually Happened: She got eliminated one week after I posted that prediction. I won’t expound on this further because I already wrote a whole blog entry for this. Score: -1; Cumulative Score: -1 ¾
Prediction: Tim Urban will survive after Top 7.
Still to be seen
Prediction: Katie Stevens gets eliminated in Top 8 while Tim Urban gets eliminated in Top 9 (I know, I know… I had contradicting predictions)
What Actually Happened: Katie prediction was right while Tim Urban prediction was wrong. No additional points for me
Prediction: Kara DioGuardi will pose nude in Playboy within the next five years
What Actually Happened: Kara DioGuardi posed nude. Yup, she fulfilled my prediction a week after I made it. However, it’s not on Playboy so I just get ½ point in here. Cumulative Score: -1 ¼
Prediction: Either Lee or Casey will win American Idol this year
Stay tuned…
NCAA
Prediction: Duke will win the national championship
What Actually Happened: Yes, they did. I even wrote a blog entry for this. Since this was a difficult pick (and I want to spite the Duke haters as well), I will reward myself 1.5 points for this. Cumulative Score: ¼
My cumulative score (1/4) is not impressive but I did not abuse my fantasy NBA predictions either (there were more correct predictions in there since most were safe picks) and I even earned more negative points by exposing my fantasy NBA flops. Nevertheless, I will end this blog with my NBA Playoff Bracket (wow, predictions!) for this year.
You may wonder why I did not pick Cleveland to win it all. The primary reason for it is because I am still uncertain how the Cavaliers not named LeBron James will respond to the crucial playoff matches. They disappointed last year, right? Also, I do not want to bet against #24. The Lakers maybe encountering the Disease of More (defending champs losing hunger) but I think they can still turn on the switch just like the ’01 Lakers. Media is underestimating Kobe and Co. right now that I think it would serve as their motivation to prove the naysayers wrong.
I like Cleveland’s chances this year (as this is their best team yet) and I want them to win it all, but my mind and gut says otherwise. I think Kobe already knows The Secret of winning now. LeBron understands it but we have yet to see him display the fierceness that he should possess. Sustaining it up to the Finals is also a question mark. That is why I pick the ones with experience (Lakers).
Here is my playoff bracket for this year. Note that I made this last Saturday (prior to the start of the playoffs). I should be putting the Nuggets over the Jazz as it was just recently that I learned of AK47 and Okur’s injuries. But then, what’s the use of predictions if you are going to cheat?
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