Note: I have edited the original blog entry as the game was postponed last Sunday.
This coming Thursday, the Ateneo Blue Eagles and the University of the East Red Warriors will battle it out for Game 1 of the UAAP Finals. Ateneo arrived in this position after they pulverized the UST Growling Tigers while UE, with its morale at a high, defeated the pre-season favorites – the FEU Tamaraws - twice. Both teams come in to the Thursday showdown with huge winning streaks. Ateneo’s current win streak number is at eleven while UE’s is at eight. One can also make a case that this is the battle of the perennial chokers of the decade. Both teams consistently reached the Final Four in this decade but they usually crumbled when it mattered the most (with the exception of 2002 and 2008). However, the Eagles and the Warriors play contrasting styles and both come from different backgrounds. I shall provide some analysis on the chances of succeeding for both teams.
Actual Game Numbers: The Normal Sports Analyst’s Evaluations
If one were to compare the team stats of Ateneo to UE, it would be easy for that person to conclude that the Blue Eagles have the superior numbers. Ateneo is tops on defense and is the best field goal shooting team in the league. The Hail Mary Squad is also the best team in dimes and is highly efficient in the charity stripe. Heck, the Eagles even own the three-point land. I do not have the overall stat sheet with me but if I am not mistaken, UE’s edge just comes from stealing, rebounding and ballhandling. Just by the numbers, Ateneo is the sure pick to win when these two squads meet.
Oh wait, UE is better in rebounds and turnovers?! Uh oh… I mentioned last year that those two stats are very important to coaches because these translate to possessions. Last year, Team Ateneo relied on the most important factors to win their games: defense, rebounding and ball-handling. This year, UE is statistically better in the last two departments and that could help them in upsetting the highly-favored Blue Eagles. But still, Ateneo takes the upper hand on the statistical battle.
Momentum-wise, I think both teams are just at par with each other. I cringe at the sight when pundits claim that UE is the hottest team in the league right now. Guys, hello?! Ateneo has the longer winning streak. Nevertheless, it does not matter if it is 8 or 11. Those are incredible streaks whichever way you look at it. I say that momentum is just the same for both teams.
Addendum: The typhoon Ondoy might have killed some of the momentum of both teams especially the affected Blue Eagles. Jai Reyes, for instance, somehow thrives on momentum. It would be interesting on how both coaches would respond after this huge incident.
Experience plays a critical part in crucial games. No matter how skilled the players are, it has been very evident in basketball championship matches that ‘experience trumps everything.’ And in this department, Ateneo is very much favored as they won it all last year. Just by watching the Blue Eagles play this season, you will easily observe that they are poised and disciplined to succeed. However, we cannot fully count out UE. One must remember that some of these guys already tasted Finals before (2007). They might have lost but they have already tasted what it felt to be in the big stage.
Looking at any other numerical analyses, one can easily say that Ateneo pawns UE. From the game differential to the discipline. Norman Black’s highly disciplined system and his capability on the X’s and O’s of coaching gives Ateneo the edge. To be honest, the Ateneo Blue Eagles have almost all of the ingredients that basketball winners have: strong defense, superior inside and outside shooting, discipline, poise, teamwork, never-say-die attitude, and championship experience. UE, on the other hand, appears to lack discipline and has a mind-boggling freewheeling system. They carry the losing aura as they have been this decade’s Final Four bridesmaids. Even if they beat FEU twice, I am actually not that convinced because they had a bit of luck on their side to pull off two hot-shooting wins.
Ateneo is more superior if you look at the actual game numbers but UE can snatch victory by being the outlier of inferior lineups. And how can they be the huge deviation? I think the ‘hunger’ factor will hugely help the Red Warriors. I was not even a year old when their school held the basketball crown. If you watch their recent games, you will notice that they really want it. They are feeling it as they celebrate after every difficult shot they make. Even their fans are cheering loudly especially in Game 2. High emotions are very pivotal at this time of the season. This brings us to our next point…
Historical Perspective: The Story of the Cinderella Teams
As a huge UAAP fan this decade, I can truly attest that collegiate basketball is fueled by several Cinderella stories. The term ‘peaking at the right time’ was heavily used in recent years because unexpected teams beat their dominant foes. The beauty of collegiate basketball is its unpredictability. Let’s admit it: college players are not that consistent as professional guys are. You see several turnovers and missed shots in every UAAP game. This fact proves that superior collegiate teams can be vulnerable at time. We must also remember that players play for school pride and ride with the emotionally-uplifting cheers of the fans. Thus, we often see the David teams beat their Goliath opponents. You still do not believe me? Let’s take a look at history.
I started religiously watching UAAP in 2002. I can take further data in years prior to 2002 but I prefer to analyze from the seasons I have wholeheartedly watched. Ever since 2002, first-seeded teams are in tough luck. Their winning record against their Finals opponents is at 2-5. We must also remember that the first-seeded teams ALWAYS advance to the grand stage, thus this emphasizes how likely it is for them to lose to the 2nd and 3rd seeded teams. The only 1st placed teams to succeed were Ateneo (over DLSU in 2008) and FEU (over DLSU in 2005). By the way, I am considering DLSU’s championship in 2004 ‘legitimate’ in this discussion since we are just talking about the actual games, not the eventual rankings.
Another interesting fact that is going for UE is, third placed teams (since 2002) which advanced to the Finals always end up winning the championship. Ateneo did it in 2002 over the 13-1 DLSU squad while UST succeeded in 2006 by beating the 10-2 Ateneo team. Suddenly, the Blue Eagles 13-1 win-loss slate is not that scary as it used to be.
Norman Black’s history is not going to help Ateneo either. I actually read this from the forums and I found out that Norman Black has an awful record against rookie coaches. Black’s SMB PBA team lost to the Rino Salazar-led Shell squad in 1992 and to Chot Reyes’ Purefoods team in 1993. Black also coached the Blue Eagles when they lost to Pido’s UST Tigers when Jarencio was just a rookie coach. I cannot fully validate on Rino Salazar’s win over Norman Black but I am pretty sure with Chot Reyes’ win because his championship game was the very first basketball game I have watched.
I believe in the saying, “History repeats itself.” I have watched too many basketball games for me to observe teams commit the same mistakes of the past. I also regard momentum highly because it really fuels the players. I am a streaky shooter when I play basketball so I know how it feels. Once you experience your shots to trickle in, you will have that inner boost to trigger the same way again. That is what is existent in the Red Warriors and the other successful third placed teams. They may not be that successful in the elimination round but because they got the boost at the right time, they have the opportunity to succeed. Sweeping FEU in the Final Four just adds more fuel to the fire.
Ateneo appears to be dominating in statistical records but UE has the side of history behind them. Suddenly, the Red Warriors became the favorites by being the underdogs. However, the Hail Mary squad also possesses interesting X-factors which could negate history and put them as the outliers to the Cinderella stories. The third placed teams that succeeded in 2002 and 2006 both defeated the first-seeded squads during the elimination round. On the other hand, Ateneo dominated the UE Red Warriors in both games this year. The second round encounter had a small margin but it was actually a blowout heading to the final minute. If there is one huge indicator in Finals, that would be the head-to-head matches. Almost all pundits predicted the Cavs to beat the Magic early this year but the opposite happened because the experts missed out the fact that Orlando had more wins against Cleveland in the regular season and these were all in big margins.
If UE has ‘hunger,’ Ateneo has momentum and experience. The past #1 seeds which lost to their foes somehow lost their steam somewhere along the road. Ateneo circa 2006 lost to UST in the elims; the 13-1 Green Archers lost their final regular season game; and the 14-0 UE squad had almost a month of break. If UE is peaking at the right time, so is Ateneo. And with the Blue Eagles being the habitual people to lick their wounds in past seasons, I think they have learned from their mistakes. Even some Ateneo fans (LIKE ME!) do not want to predict that Ateneo is going to win for the fear of jinxing the team. The Blue and White, being the historical underdog (by being #1), can become the outlier of UAAP’s champions if they have indeed learned from history.
Which team would be the outlier? We shall find out next week.
I hope the Blue Eagles have indeed learned their lessons in the past. No Yabang. Eyes on the prize. Remember, it is only once in our lifetime for us to experience the 150th anniversary of our school. Please make it special. One Big Fight!
This coming Thursday, the Ateneo Blue Eagles and the University of the East Red Warriors will battle it out for Game 1 of the UAAP Finals. Ateneo arrived in this position after they pulverized the UST Growling Tigers while UE, with its morale at a high, defeated the pre-season favorites – the FEU Tamaraws - twice. Both teams come in to the Thursday showdown with huge winning streaks. Ateneo’s current win streak number is at eleven while UE’s is at eight. One can also make a case that this is the battle of the perennial chokers of the decade. Both teams consistently reached the Final Four in this decade but they usually crumbled when it mattered the most (with the exception of 2002 and 2008). However, the Eagles and the Warriors play contrasting styles and both come from different backgrounds. I shall provide some analysis on the chances of succeeding for both teams.
Actual Game Numbers: The Normal Sports Analyst’s Evaluations
If one were to compare the team stats of Ateneo to UE, it would be easy for that person to conclude that the Blue Eagles have the superior numbers. Ateneo is tops on defense and is the best field goal shooting team in the league. The Hail Mary Squad is also the best team in dimes and is highly efficient in the charity stripe. Heck, the Eagles even own the three-point land. I do not have the overall stat sheet with me but if I am not mistaken, UE’s edge just comes from stealing, rebounding and ballhandling. Just by the numbers, Ateneo is the sure pick to win when these two squads meet.
Oh wait, UE is better in rebounds and turnovers?! Uh oh… I mentioned last year that those two stats are very important to coaches because these translate to possessions. Last year, Team Ateneo relied on the most important factors to win their games: defense, rebounding and ball-handling. This year, UE is statistically better in the last two departments and that could help them in upsetting the highly-favored Blue Eagles. But still, Ateneo takes the upper hand on the statistical battle.
Momentum-wise, I think both teams are just at par with each other. I cringe at the sight when pundits claim that UE is the hottest team in the league right now. Guys, hello?! Ateneo has the longer winning streak. Nevertheless, it does not matter if it is 8 or 11. Those are incredible streaks whichever way you look at it. I say that momentum is just the same for both teams.
Addendum: The typhoon Ondoy might have killed some of the momentum of both teams especially the affected Blue Eagles. Jai Reyes, for instance, somehow thrives on momentum. It would be interesting on how both coaches would respond after this huge incident.
Experience plays a critical part in crucial games. No matter how skilled the players are, it has been very evident in basketball championship matches that ‘experience trumps everything.’ And in this department, Ateneo is very much favored as they won it all last year. Just by watching the Blue Eagles play this season, you will easily observe that they are poised and disciplined to succeed. However, we cannot fully count out UE. One must remember that some of these guys already tasted Finals before (2007). They might have lost but they have already tasted what it felt to be in the big stage.
Looking at any other numerical analyses, one can easily say that Ateneo pawns UE. From the game differential to the discipline. Norman Black’s highly disciplined system and his capability on the X’s and O’s of coaching gives Ateneo the edge. To be honest, the Ateneo Blue Eagles have almost all of the ingredients that basketball winners have: strong defense, superior inside and outside shooting, discipline, poise, teamwork, never-say-die attitude, and championship experience. UE, on the other hand, appears to lack discipline and has a mind-boggling freewheeling system. They carry the losing aura as they have been this decade’s Final Four bridesmaids. Even if they beat FEU twice, I am actually not that convinced because they had a bit of luck on their side to pull off two hot-shooting wins.
Ateneo is more superior if you look at the actual game numbers but UE can snatch victory by being the outlier of inferior lineups. And how can they be the huge deviation? I think the ‘hunger’ factor will hugely help the Red Warriors. I was not even a year old when their school held the basketball crown. If you watch their recent games, you will notice that they really want it. They are feeling it as they celebrate after every difficult shot they make. Even their fans are cheering loudly especially in Game 2. High emotions are very pivotal at this time of the season. This brings us to our next point…
Historical Perspective: The Story of the Cinderella Teams
As a huge UAAP fan this decade, I can truly attest that collegiate basketball is fueled by several Cinderella stories. The term ‘peaking at the right time’ was heavily used in recent years because unexpected teams beat their dominant foes. The beauty of collegiate basketball is its unpredictability. Let’s admit it: college players are not that consistent as professional guys are. You see several turnovers and missed shots in every UAAP game. This fact proves that superior collegiate teams can be vulnerable at time. We must also remember that players play for school pride and ride with the emotionally-uplifting cheers of the fans. Thus, we often see the David teams beat their Goliath opponents. You still do not believe me? Let’s take a look at history.
I started religiously watching UAAP in 2002. I can take further data in years prior to 2002 but I prefer to analyze from the seasons I have wholeheartedly watched. Ever since 2002, first-seeded teams are in tough luck. Their winning record against their Finals opponents is at 2-5. We must also remember that the first-seeded teams ALWAYS advance to the grand stage, thus this emphasizes how likely it is for them to lose to the 2nd and 3rd seeded teams. The only 1st placed teams to succeed were Ateneo (over DLSU in 2008) and FEU (over DLSU in 2005). By the way, I am considering DLSU’s championship in 2004 ‘legitimate’ in this discussion since we are just talking about the actual games, not the eventual rankings.
Another interesting fact that is going for UE is, third placed teams (since 2002) which advanced to the Finals always end up winning the championship. Ateneo did it in 2002 over the 13-1 DLSU squad while UST succeeded in 2006 by beating the 10-2 Ateneo team. Suddenly, the Blue Eagles 13-1 win-loss slate is not that scary as it used to be.
Norman Black’s history is not going to help Ateneo either. I actually read this from the forums and I found out that Norman Black has an awful record against rookie coaches. Black’s SMB PBA team lost to the Rino Salazar-led Shell squad in 1992 and to Chot Reyes’ Purefoods team in 1993. Black also coached the Blue Eagles when they lost to Pido’s UST Tigers when Jarencio was just a rookie coach. I cannot fully validate on Rino Salazar’s win over Norman Black but I am pretty sure with Chot Reyes’ win because his championship game was the very first basketball game I have watched.
I believe in the saying, “History repeats itself.” I have watched too many basketball games for me to observe teams commit the same mistakes of the past. I also regard momentum highly because it really fuels the players. I am a streaky shooter when I play basketball so I know how it feels. Once you experience your shots to trickle in, you will have that inner boost to trigger the same way again. That is what is existent in the Red Warriors and the other successful third placed teams. They may not be that successful in the elimination round but because they got the boost at the right time, they have the opportunity to succeed. Sweeping FEU in the Final Four just adds more fuel to the fire.
Ateneo appears to be dominating in statistical records but UE has the side of history behind them. Suddenly, the Red Warriors became the favorites by being the underdogs. However, the Hail Mary squad also possesses interesting X-factors which could negate history and put them as the outliers to the Cinderella stories. The third placed teams that succeeded in 2002 and 2006 both defeated the first-seeded squads during the elimination round. On the other hand, Ateneo dominated the UE Red Warriors in both games this year. The second round encounter had a small margin but it was actually a blowout heading to the final minute. If there is one huge indicator in Finals, that would be the head-to-head matches. Almost all pundits predicted the Cavs to beat the Magic early this year but the opposite happened because the experts missed out the fact that Orlando had more wins against Cleveland in the regular season and these were all in big margins.
If UE has ‘hunger,’ Ateneo has momentum and experience. The past #1 seeds which lost to their foes somehow lost their steam somewhere along the road. Ateneo circa 2006 lost to UST in the elims; the 13-1 Green Archers lost their final regular season game; and the 14-0 UE squad had almost a month of break. If UE is peaking at the right time, so is Ateneo. And with the Blue Eagles being the habitual people to lick their wounds in past seasons, I think they have learned from their mistakes. Even some Ateneo fans (LIKE ME!) do not want to predict that Ateneo is going to win for the fear of jinxing the team. The Blue and White, being the historical underdog (by being #1), can become the outlier of UAAP’s champions if they have indeed learned from history.
Which team would be the outlier? We shall find out next week.
I hope the Blue Eagles have indeed learned their lessons in the past. No Yabang. Eyes on the prize. Remember, it is only once in our lifetime for us to experience the 150th anniversary of our school. Please make it special. One Big Fight!
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