Favorite time of the year! It is mid April and as the sun blazes, I usually enjoy this time of the year. Holy week has ended so all of my penance and sacrifices are done. It is summer time and everyone is on a happy mode as it is sunny. This also happens to be the time when it is least likely for me to catch a cold or flu. Beach time as well! And of course, I am not going to worry about the horrendous traffic that is plaguing the streets of Metro Manila as students are having their vacation. All is well...NOT!
April used to be my favorite month of the year but all the things I like about it are starting to get undesirable this year. The sunny weather has become terrible this year that I can easily perspire within five minutes. Sleeping at nights is quite hard even if I have the electric fan at its maximum power set directly at me. It became so hot that I perspired heavily in my sleep causing me to get terribly sick for three weeks last month. I also get colds every now and then. Another sad thing is that I do not have a scheduled beach vacation this summer. Simply put, I have retracted every good thing I stated in the introductory paragraph. What about traffic? Hmmm… students are now in vacation so that’s good. The problem is, 50% of the roads I pass by have a construction ongoing recently. This is actually turning to be more and more terrible as years go by because it seems that the roads are always scheduled every summer. Nothing wrong with fixing it but if it gets ‘fixed’ every year, there is something terribly wrong. It is either it had an awful initial construction or a politician wants to use it as an opportunity to do something productive. Actually, it is counter-productive… if it ain’t broken, don’t fix the goddamn thing!
Is April so bad now? Not at all. I still missed one important thing that makes the month awesomely hot – the NBA playoffs. All the teams have pretty much finished their regular season games by now so we are set to another wild ride. Unlike past years, this year’s version of the NBA playoffs is more balanced in both conferences. The East finally has a strong set of contenders for the crown this year. The first two rounds maybe quite predictable (especially in the Eastern Conference) but we know that this would have a potentially delightful ending as the top teams square off in June.
In the spirit of indulging to sportsmanship, I will be showing my playoff bracket for this year. I got motivated to do this after Bill Simmons screwed up his NCAA playoff bracket. By the way, I try as much as possible not to be biased in predicting the winner. (courtesy of paspn.net)
This looks harder than I actually thought (but of course it’s easier than predicting an NCAA playoff bracket). A week or two weeks ago, it would have been easier to predict with Manu Ginobili playing and the Utah Jazz were not yet the eighth place team. Nevertheless, here are my predictions. Along with this would be my point system (so that I could determine how well I predicted).
Every correct prediction in the:
1st round would equate to 10 points (out of 80)
2nd round would equate to 20 points (out of 80)
Conference Finals would equate to 40 points (out of 80)
Finals would equate to 80 points (out of 80)
Every wrong prediction in the number of games in the: (no deductions if I picked the loser)
1st round would amount to a multiplier of 1 to the difference of the games
2nd round would amount to a multiplier of 2 to the difference of the games
Conference Finals would amount to a multiplier of 4 to the difference of the games
Finals would amount to a multiplier of 8 to the difference of the games
Frankly, I have no intentions of predicting the number of games but since it was on the website, I decided to add it to put more spice (and buzzkill my final score) to my predictions.
I also avoided reading NBA columns on matchup predictions to avoid being swayed by writers in my decision to pick the teams (especially in the West were the matchups give unpredictable results)
Let’s analyze!
First Round
Cleveland 4, Detroit 1. The Pistons may have some veterans and they had the tradition of winning but since they are facing the #1 team in the regular season, there is a very small chance of an upset. LeBron has beaten a much stronger Piston squad in the playoffs while he had weaker teammates two years ago, more so will he beat them now that he has the stronger squad and Detroit has the weaker squad.
Miami 4, Atlanta 2. The Hawks are a decent complete team but when they face Wade’s Heat, all hell is going to break lose. Hey, Atlanta won their regular season series 3-1. Throw in the stat sheets! The leader of the Heat is the very same (if not better) person who fueled his team to win over the dominant Mavericks in the NBA Finals three years ago. Let’s add in the fact that Michael Beasley is shooting hot lately. The Heat are indeed pumped up.
Orlando 4, Philadelphia 1. I must admit that I did not believe in Orlando winning a playoff round prior to the playoffs last year. But, they did in dominating fashion. Now that SVG’s squad is stronger and better, they have high chances of pawning their first round rivals this year. The Magic are better in defense and I think their hot shooting from downtown will deliver them the W against the Brand-less 76ers.
Boston 4, Chicago 1. This is a very easy one. The Celts are not a dominating playoff team last year (it took them seven games to finish the Hawks) so I will at least give Chi-town one win in this series. Yes, the C’s are having injury issues but their team discipline, experience and swagger will make them one of the teams to beat these playoffs. Not yet satisfied? Rondo > Rose. Allen > Gordon. Pierce > Salmons. Davis = Thomas. Perkins > Noah. Not even close.
LA Lakers 4, Utah 2. See? I am not biased. I had one of my favorite teams beaten in the first round. Haha. It is because they are against the Lakers. Nevertheless, the Salt Lake City crowd will give the Lakers a one helluva ride as Deron and company are preparing for an upset this year. Realistically though, the Lakers will still prevail.
Portland 4, Houston 3. Man, this gets tougher and tougher. If the Blazers were up against the Spurs, it would have been easier. Portland has already reached their mission this year. Everything is just icing in the cake but I think they will try their best to win this series. We all know that the Rockets are formidable opponents even without T-Mac. Experts even say that they got better. But for me, I think they lost their X-Factor in this series. Even if I prefer having Yao over T-Mac, I think the Rockets will miss their once big-time scorer in the clutch time. Portland has Brandon Roy and their remarkable half court play. You may say that Battier will lockdown on B-Roy but you must also remember that Portland has an amazing bench that is composed of Outlaw, Fernandez and Oden. Rockets have the edge in the frontcourt because of Yao but since both teams are slow-paced, I think this would boil down to who wins in the clutch and who has the homecourt advantage. The Blazers are remarkably good at home as well.
Dallas 4, San Antonio 3. Two weeks ago, I would have penciled in the Spurs as the Lakers in the Conference Finals. Then, came the dreadful news on Manu Ginobili. I admit that I am a die-hard anti-Spurs fan ever since Tim Duncan played but I also have some brains not to bet against them when they were a powerhouse this decade. But things changed. Dallas is in a momentum roll lately and Duncan is nursing on his wear and tear injury. This series would be close for the old-time rivals but I think Dirk’s team will prevail in the end because the Spurs have major injury concerns. Their dip in defense this year will also matter. So yeah, Mavs in seven.
Denver 4, New Orleans 2. Another bloody tough call. This is actually the hardest matchup to predict. CP3 can carry his team past the first round while the Nuggets have a tendency to get owned in the first round of playoffs. However, the installment of Chauncey Billups has extremely helped them. Having an injured Tyson Chandler isn’t helping the Hornets as well as they could have exploited the smaller frontcourt of Denver. In the end, I think it boils down to who wants this series more. Denver has been aching to get past the first round and with a more complete team fueled with momentum, I pick them to win this series.
Second Round
Cleveland 4, Miami 2. LBJ vs. D-Wade. We have in here a matchup of superstars. Wade is stronger in clutch but LeBron is a better playmaker. Pound-for-pound though, Cleveland is stronger than Miami. The former’s commitment to defense is also remarkable as that is what teams need in the long-run. But I still respect Dwyane Wade that is why I predict that they will win at least two games in this series. Expect LeBron to guard him though.
Boston 4, Orlando 2. I am pretty confident on this one. Yes, my dear. Even if Garnett is not 100% healthy. Never doubt the defending champions. I even think that they are the Lakers’ kryptonite because of their strong defense. It will be put into test in here as Orlando tries to shoot from downtown. At the end of the day, using threes to win will still be risky and Dwight Howard will have to bang bodies against two strong C’s big men.
LA Lakers 4, Portland 2. Is Portland an easy prey? Nope. As much as most are confident that LA will face little adversity going to the Finals, I think Portland will still pull in at least two home wins in this series. The Blazers really have great support and they can match LA’s deep lineup. Portland’s halfcourt offense will also slow down LA’s rapid scoring production making this matchup not as easy as you thought it would be.
Denver 4, Dallas 2. The hardest matchup to predict in the second round. I don’ t know if it is because I am used to seeing Denver beaten in the playoffs or it is because I did not envision these two to face the Lakers in the conference finals. I still chose Denver at the end of the day because I think their momentum will further carry them. Also, their big men won’t have that much of a problem as Dirk does not always score via the low post and they can match him in speed. Jason Kidd versus Chauncey Billups is also intriguing but I prefer the latter because he has the winning attitude that Denver needs. It’s time for them to shine.
Conference Finals
Cleveland 4, Boston 3. Tough matchup. If Boston is LA’s kryptonite, then Cleveland is Boston’s kryptonite. Last year, the Cavs proved to the world that they have stretched the C’s to the max and almost took away their championship hopes. King James is back with a tougher squad this year. The Celtics do not have Eddie House to defend LBJ. KG might still be recovering this time. But the biggest factor? Cleveland has the homecourt advantage. We all know how important that is. But then, I am not that 90-100% confident on this one because Boston Celtics is still a complete team with a rejuvenated Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. If they do win this one, Lakers beware.
LA Lakers 4, Denver 0. I am not really sold into the Nuggets this year. They will be facing the Lakers on the conference finals and I think they might succumb to more pressure. Their frontcourt won’t do much against LA’s dominant frontcourt. The Nuggets are not that known on D so I think they will lose this one heavily as the Lakers will have their appetizer before going to the main course.
Finals
Cleveland 4, LA Lakers 2. The Lakers are going to the main course. The question is, are they going to taste the main course or are they the main course? The latter is largely impossible though. Remember that Kobe is on a mission this year. But then, LeBron is a changed man as well. They will both help their teams in clutch but I think I have to give the edge to Cleveland. OK, this is a bit biased but if there is a valid chance for you to pick your favorite team, go do it! How many times will you see your favorite team (make sure you do not hop bandwagons) to be in this position? I must say that the last time was the Utah Jazz in 1998 and they even lost. This is why I am picking the Cavaliers. I believe that they can win the crown this year especially now that they have the full homecourt advantage. They also have the greatest player in the world today. Lastly, they play strong defense. It has been a common building block of champion teams. Boston Celtics 2008. Ateneo Blue Eagles 2008. Jordan’s Bulls. Detroit Pistons 2004. San Antonio Spurs 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007. The Lakers are dominating offensively but if you can clamp them and you also have a legitimate offense to offer, you have a chance. Odds will still show that the Lakers will most likely win this especially that they swept the Cavs 2-0 this year. But we must also remember that the Cavs swept the Lakers last year and two years ago as well. At the end of the day, the ball is round. Anyone can win this so good luck to every team in this year’s playoffs.
Awards Picks:
MVP: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Coach of the Year: Stan Van Gundy, Orlando Magic / Mike Brown, Cleveland Cavaliers
Rookie of the Year: Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Sixth Man: Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks
Defensive Player of the Year: LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Off-Topic
Congratulations to the UNC Tar Heels for winning this year’s Men’s Basketball Div 1 NCAA Tournament! I may root for the Duke Blue Devils, UNC’s archrival, but I still salute the strong team effort of the Tar Heels this season. Anyway, rivalry just matters to me if I actually belonged to their school (which I’m not). It was a great March Madness this year. Good job to Michigan State for making it this far as well.
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