UAAP Season 71: End of First Round

Note: This is an old post from my Multiply site last August 10, 2008.

After weeks of duel, the first round of UAAP Men’s Basketball Tourney has ended. This journal entry maybe a week old but it is not yet too late despite of recent results of big games of La Salle, UE, Ateneo and FEU. It has been a promising UAAP season so far as five strong teams are in main contention. There is the Dominant Three (composed of Ateneo, La Salle and FEU) but it is still any man’s ballgame as UE and UST showed that they were forces to reckon with. The drama will surely get better as the season progresses.

But for the meantime, let us take a look at my analysis as to how the season went so far.

Ateneo de Manila University Blue Eagles (6-1)
My Alma Mater, the Ateneo de Manila University, currently leads the pack with a 6-1 (it’s actually 7-1 but let’s analyze it at an ‘end of 1st round’ point of view). The Blue Eagles have been successful because of three things: strong defense, efficient ball-handling and good free throw shooting. Of all the stats, they just led on three aspects and they are No. 1 in a highly-competitive league?! Yes. Actually, I am not certain that they lead in free throw shooting but I am a 100% sure they led in defense (least opponent’s points per game) and turnovers. But in those three categories we can see the trait of a fundamentally sound team.

Defense wins games. Ever wonder why San Antonio became champs for three years? It’s because they had defense. What about the Celtics? How did they beat the dominant Laker squad? Defense. It is tried and proven. Limit your opponents to few points and you get half of the job done. One might answer that some teams thrive on pure offense alone. Look at the D’Antoni-led Phoenix Suns. Yeah, did they ever win an NBA championship? No. Are they more exciting than the above-mentioned teams? Yes. Offense always gets the glory. But then, it is not as consistent as defense is. Everyone has their times of waking up at the wrong side of the bed and when these instances happen, their shots won’t go in. In defense, you stick with the fundamentals and you should have lesser chances of having bad days. Like some sportscasters say, “there is no off-night in defense.”

I guess the biggest turn that the Hail Mary squad has done this season is to lessen their turnovers. It is another important aspect of old-school basketball. The fewer your turnovers, the more you optimize your possessions. You might have a great shooting team but if you turn the ball over twice of your opponent’s, it is like missing shots without a chance to rebound. Furthermore, turnovers sometimes cause fastbreaks. Fastbreaks = quick and easy points.

As for freethrow shooting, I suggest you take a look at the first Ateneo-La Salle match. Because of horrible freethrow shooting, La Salle contributed to their loss more than Ateneo won themselves the game.

Thus, the main reason why Ateneo is leading is because they have been playing by the textbook. Furthermore, they have been playing a decent team play where the team has had its good share of contributions. This is brought to you by the five main Blue Eagles thus far: Chris Tiu for his leadership and clutch shooting; Rabeh Al-Hussaini for his efficient interior scoring (this guy is giving Jervy a run for his money); Eric Salamat for his pesky defense and momentum-shifting steals; Nonoy Baclao for his awesome defense; and the rookie Ryan Buenafe for his efficient scoring.

Nonetheless, Team Ateneo has also struggled. Their highly-touted rookie class has not yet been convincing (even Buenafe for all the hype). The three-point shooting has been horrible (even that of Chris Tiu’s). The offense is just limited to Tiu, Al-Hussaini, Salamat and Buenafe. But then, I think there is still high potential. If this team did not guarantee UST’s Clark Bautista of a Team A slot, it just means that they are oozing with talent. Thus, even though they are at No. 1, they still have some upside.

Strengths: Defense, Low Turnovers, Free Throw Shooting, Rebounding, Interior Offense, Upside
Weaknesses: Offensive Ceiling (which might disappear), Three-Point Shooting, Perimeter Defense

De La Salle University Green Archers
Not far from their archrivals are the De La Salle University Green Archers. Boasting a 5-2 record (now 6-2), they are showing everyone that they are not letting the Blue Eagles fly away from their range. La Salle is actually weaker on paper this year than last year. They lost two key veterans in Cholo Villanueva and TY Tang (to whom I think were better than Ateneo’s Ford Arao) and they lost in the recruitment wars as Ateneo bagged the cream of the crop by getting Buenafe, Salva, Chua and Burke. Nevertheless, La Salle’s rookies showed they still had promise as Joshua Webb, Maui Villanueva and LA Revilla provide quality minutes for the green squad. Franz is really the master in developing rookies but we have yet to know who got the better of the deal after some years.

La Salle’s main weapon has got to be their bench scoring. After Tang and Villanueva left, the unpopular replacements soon got to work. Barua has been hitting threes and Mangahas has been efficient in delivering consistent starter points with the help of his height and quickness. JV Casio and Rico Maierhoffer continue to be the leaders of the pack for the Green Archers but their strong offense from the bench has shown us something that we are not accustomed from La Salle before – more distributed scoring. Usually, La Salle fields three to four high volume scorers (e.g., Joseph Yeo, TY Tang, Cholo Villanueva, JV Casio, Rico Maierhoffer) but other than that, everyone else is a role player. As of what we see now, their bench has contributed a lot to the point that JV Casio does not need to score. Pretty scary, right? Yes, but these are against relatively weaker teams. They have yet to show their goods against defensive teams like Ateneo and for the record, Ateneo beat La Salle in Round 1.

If Ateneo excels in defense, La Salle dominates by offense. They also have a decent defense but their best bet would have to be their efficient scoring (I think they led the league in FG%). They are even better in getting bigger leads than Ateneo. Furthermore, they are more athletic. They might not have the wide bodies to bang with underneath but they have the quicker big men in Rico Maierhoffer and James Mangahas.

What does La Salle lack? They are not that good in free throw shooting. Their pressure defense is not anymore scary as it was. Furthermore, they choke when they get their own dose of medicine. UE was successful in that one. That just proves the theory that teams that trap do not like to get trapped. Lastly, the Green Archers just lost a key big man in Marko Batricevic (out for the season). He does not contribute a lot but I think it is a major loss to them because they already lack bigs and this guy has just lost some time for development (no playing time = no development).

But with the strong show of La Salle’s unknown players, the question now is, will they still have it as the season progresses? Or are they already peaking? Quite ironic for an Archer squad that is known for peaking at the right time. Nevertheless, Franz is known for playing the right cards at the right time so we still have to find out.

Strengths: Offense, Three-Point Shooting, Quickness, Bench Scoring, Player Development
Weaknesses: Free-Throw Shooting, Limited Upside?, Chokes when getting pressed

Far Eastern University Tamaraws (5-2)
The Team from Morayta started the season with a blast. They are touted to be the team of the future but with their first round showing, it seems that they have arrived. They were predicted to be Ateneo’s main rival in the years to come because they also have hit the jackpot in the recruiting class by getting two imports. They were supposed to be the hottest team in the league but they became victims of unfortunate incidents. When they faced La Salle, they were called a technical foul in a crucial end-game possession. Result: Loss. Days after celebrating a win over UST, their veteran power forward, Marnel Baracael , was shot in front of some of his teammates. Results: two emotional wins and two players out of the season (including one of their imports). After winning against league-leading Ateneo, they fell victim to the cellar-dwellers, NU Bulldogs. Result: end of momentum and One Loss.

Do not get me wrong but I think these unfortunate incidents could be the reasons why FEU will not win the championship this season. They had a promising, complete team but I do not think that have a chance of winning the championship. Getting a terrible call from a referee was just OK but if you lose a veteran big man and your team did not have size as its main strength, there is cause for panic. Yes, they won over Ateneo even without Baracael but it is just by emotion. It can produce a win or two for your team but it does not deliver you the championship. Talent is still important in the long run. Just look at what happened when Ateneo lost Larry Fonacier to ACL injury. The Houston Rockets even went to greater heights when they lost Yao Ming to a season-ending injury. But did both teams win a single playoff round? No. But then, bilog ang bola so the Tamaraws still have a chance. It’s just that it is unlikely to happen.

So much for the losses... from what stuff are these Tamaraws made of? First of all, they are a hot three-point shooting team. Just watch the Ateneo-FEU games and you will observe that they have abused the perimeter. Almost everyone in the team can shoot threes. What’s scarier is that they are tall in the wingmen positions. It is like having Arwind Santoses in your team! Of course, none of his quality but the fact that they have tall and athletic players gives them the chance to battle for boards, score in the inside and shoot it from downtown. Those are the main reasons why a strong defensive team like Ateneo finds a hard time in beating them. Another strength I can see in this squad is that they have a deep team. Everyone has the potential to come up big. It is shades of the Ateneo and UST teams of Season 69.

But if there is one thing that made FEU successful in the first round, that has got to be their clutch game. They have been into a lot of clutch games, and they have been successful in most occasions. Ladies and gentlemen, that is a major improvement for a team that was rookie-laden the previous year. But then, it could bring us to think that the Law of Averages will soon catch up to them. They should win with a big lead against one or two strong teams in the second round before I consider them as a legit title contender. Yes, I am counting Law of Averages to be their weakness. It’s not just all about tangible and rational stuff in here. People can never get this lucky. I have seen that in the past Ateneo teams.

Strengths: Three-Point Shooting, Athleticism and Quickness, Shotblocking, Freethrow Shooting, Clutch
Weaknesses: Injury Loss, Law of Averages, Lack of Big Men, No Playoff Experience

University of the East Red Warriors (4-3)
It just turns out that last year’s kings of eliminations round are not that invincible anymore. Actually, they had a very shaky first round this year. They showed signs of weaknesses by losing to the birds of UAAP – Ateneo and Adamson. Furthermore, FEU dealt them their third loss putting them to a vulnerable position to finish with a losing record. But still, they were able to redeem themselves by beating the defending champions on their first meeting. Thanks to the injuries and their pressing defense, La Salle was not able to recover from that despite of their efforts to comeback. Nevertheless, the UE community should not rejoice that much from that win. Well, La Salle was able to get back at them last Thursday. UE still has to show that they are a capable playoff team. Yes, they are a major threat to the top three teams but they still need to produce convincing wins. Maybe one win against a strong team then a sweep on the weaker teams. The fact that they lost to Adamson shows that they can be beaten by inconsistent teams (call it a ‘chamba’ shot from Gonzalgo, but a win is a win – the Falcons deserved that victory).

UE is the best three-point shooting team in the land. This is a guard-laden team so what do you expect? This strength makes them come closer against their opponents whenever they are down by 7-10 points (see Ateneo vs. UE). Furthermore, three-point shooting is always a possible momentum-shifter in the UAAP. The crowd always erupts at a three-point shot sighting.

Another key to UE’s success is their pressure defense. They are now the most aggressive team in doing such and they have been triumphant in some scenarios. Just look at their match against La Salle and you will see how they rattled La Salle’s first half offense. However, I do not think this is effective against Ateneo. The Blue Eagles have mastered the science of beating the trap through the years and they have been able to pass it from one batch to another.

UE also boasts of some athleticism. Espiritu and Thiele can explode on the inside. Man, Espiritu’s got the hops! He does not look like a tall guy that is why I always get surprised when he manages to out-rebound the bigs. Hans Thiele, on the other hand, is an athletic big guy and has the mid-range jumper to put the opposing big men out of the shaded lane. Just look at the offensive beauty if UE can make Thiele shoot mid-range jumpers as Espiritu waits inside for the follow-up!

James Martinez has been tearing it up lately from downtown. I am still not sold on this veteran after all these years though. How can I be? James Yap was twice deadlier than he was and even has a slashing capability then but he was not even enough to give UE even a crack at the Finals. Marcy Arellano is at his final year and has been a disappointment so far. The only good thing that I observe in his game is he has substantial assists.

The problem with the Red Warriors is that they have a known kryptonite – they find it hard to score against bigger teams like Ateneo and Adamson. Yes, they are more known in shooting from downtown but you cannot rely too much on that. You can perhaps win a game or two by being lucky in three-point shooting but other than that, you are bound to have a difficult time if you cannot score down low. UE has to suffer with Tapal Vulca Seal kind of blocks from the Ateneo and Adamson big men before. I do not see that thing getting remedied because their frontline is really small.

But then, maybe this is a great year for the Warriors to peak at the right time.

Strengths: Three-Point Shooting, Athleticism and Quickness, Pressure Defense, Chance to Peak at the Right Time
Weaknesses: Weak against Teams that have great Interior Defense, Interior Defense, Limited Upside

University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers (3-4)
UST struggled a lot in the first round. They never won against strong teams and they almost lost to Adamson. They lost pivotal point guard Japs Cuan for a considerable period due to surgery and Jervy Cruz seemed rusty coming from his pre-season injury. However, one should not count out the Tigers even though they are not in the top four. Of all the dominant UAAP teams, the Growling Tigers have the most complete team. They have a strong interior offense and defense in Jervy Cruz. They have tall and quick wingmen in Ababou, Mirza, Canlas and Allera. They got the best passer in the league in Japs Cuan. They got the three-point shooting promise from rookies Clark Bautista and Jeric Fortuna.

So, what went worng?

Two players: Jervy Cruz and Japs Cuan. Tigers cannot rely on Dylan Ababou alone. He is probably their most versatile and best clutch player but he is not the main man in this team. Not when Jervy is around. If you have Jervy in your team and you do not fully utilize him, there is something wrong. Jervy did not miss a game this season or did he have sucky statistics. It’s just that, I think, he was not given the rock that much. UST has become trigger-happy from downtown that they forgot that their three best scorers are at their finest when they score inside. Even Jervy was settling for jumpers.

Is it the fault of the point guard? Probably. The fault of the coach? Yes. I do not know what is Pido trying to pull off from the Growling Tigers this season. Is he going by the same line as of Season 69 that they sucked badly at the beginning only to rise up in the final stages of the season? It seems a likely scenario for UST. It also fits Pido’s motivational tactics. By the time they have Japs Cuan back, the Tigers are set for a run. Napanood ko na ito, e. But yes, it is effective for the cagers of the Pontifical University of the Philippines. Pido gambled on his rookies by giving them exposure at the early stages of the season. We saw them fumbled. I have to be frank but I found it funny that ex-La Salle player Jeric Fortuna contributed to the La Salle win on UST by hitting hurried three-point shots. Yes, he was the goat but you’ve got to give the kid some kudos as these might be a sufficient learning experience for him to be the clutch shooter in the future.

But we ask, will lightning strike the same place twice?

It is highly unlikely for that to happen because UAAP is way lot more competitive now than it was on Season 69. La Salle is back and UST has to battle against three other dominant teams to win it all. Pido Jarencio’s strategy is not that unknown anymore and the Tigers are less hungry as they were two years ago. Nevertheless, do not ever discount the Tigers in their plan to be the champions of Season 71. They have a complete team (offensively) after all.

Strengths: Complete Team, Most Dominant Big Guy in the League, Three-Point Shooting, Chance to Peak at the Right Time, Thrives on Emotions, Rebounding
Weaknesses: Inconsistency, Predictability

Adamson University Soaring Falcons (2-5)
Adamson, on paper, should be weaker this year. They lost their top three players from last season but they will have a better win-loss record this year. Why? Two people: Michael Galinato and Coach Leo Austria. I have to attribute it more on the latter. Coach Leo was able to deliver the Falcons to the playoffs in 2006. Furthermore, Adamson was even able to pull off a shocker against Ateneo by eliminating them in a pre-season tournament. The problem is, they have not stopped the bleeding in their consecutive UAAP losses against the Blue Eagles. It has been a long time since they last beaten their bird foe. The last time featured a time when gas price was still at PhP 12 a liter. It has multiplied by five now and they are still winless against Ateneo in UAAP wars. Winning against a strong team indicates that you have a chance so in this case, Adamson still does not have it.

But... they won against a strong team this season. They beat the UE Red Warriors by a clutch shot by Gonzalgo. However, I still think they are too raw. Too inconsistent for a team to make a run for the playoffs. Unless they shove away that inconsistency will they have a chance in winning. Always remember that you can beat strong teams by luck but it won’t likely happen again because one thing that strong teams have luck is always inconsistent. Adamson is able to pull off some runs. They did it against UE and UST. But they are easily prone to long periods of scoreless-ness. It did not bother me when the Fighting Maroons defeated them in their final first round battle. Adamson has potential but Leo Austria should be able to weave magic as soon as possible or else their season is over. He needs to remove the erratic playmaking and unnecessary long shots. Adamson is good in the inside – take it to the hole.

Strengths: Interior Defense, Underrated Players that can deliver
Weaknesses: Erratic Plays, Inconsistency, Raw-ness, Limited Upside

University of the Philippines Fighting Maroons (2-5)
The Iskolar ng Bayan’s field the weakest UAAP lineup yet they were able to win two times in the first round. That is way lot better than last year’s perfect 0-14 record. At least they put some justice (although being eliminated does not give it justice) to their 100 years of existence. Their opening win against NU was great and their upset on Adamson was awesome but other than that, they were a bonus round team to everyone else. Why? Because after the jump ball has been tossed, their players seemed lost and ready to give up.

Now that is harsh. But seriously, their team is the least likely to pull off an upset among the weaker teams this season. Adamson can score in bunches and play strong interior defense to match their run. NU has talent in Asoro and company. Their coach, a UP graduate, is even better in dissecting the team plays of his opponent as compared to UP’s current coach. UP was able to score an upset though – against Adamson. But then, that team is a weak team. Note that Adamson was able to beat a playoff-bound UE team while NU was able to bring the league-leading FEU Tamaraws back to the mud.

Nevertheless, UP is still the less risky among the weaker teams when they battle each other. The team features high school standouts like Woody Co, Mike Gamboa, Migs de Asis, Martin Reyes and Mark Lopez. They are undersized and sometimes seemed less confident but they can deliver. Well, they never delivered at the same time but chances are at least one of them can have a good game. NU and Adamson play so erratically that they also have the propensity to suck worse than UP as much as they can pull an upset against the strong teams. The only problem with UP is, they lack the confidence to win it. It seems that they just fight to make the loss less horrible.

What is the problem with UP then? Turnovers. Just read my explanation on turnovers in the Ateneo section and you will realize how horrible these turnovers contribute to a loss. In fairness, they compensate it by rebounding. But with the low percentage of three-point shooting in UP, the rebounds are just necessary.

What does this team need? Watch Braveheart? I do not actually know. But they need to gain more confidence. Winning two after a winless season is a good start and they still have six games to go. If there is one pivotal thing that I have seen in the Fighting Maroons in the past years, it’s got to be their puso to win games. The Marvin Cruz-led team had that that’s why they were able to rally on a late winning streak in his final year.

Strengths: Less Risky among the Cellar Dwellers, Potential from Highschool Standouts (even if it’s unlikely), Rebounding
Weaknesses: Turnovers, Low Confidence, Inconsistency, Erratic Plays, Lowest Chance to Upset a Strong Team

National University Bulldogs (1-6)
The NU Bulldogs just got rejuvenated recently when Henry Sy bought the school and the players have started to feel some support. Do their two recent winnings attest to that? Possibly. They just beat FEU! Why are they the last team in here? Sorry, we are all about the win-loss standings. They still have that upset factor in them. They have been consistently doing that to Ateneo in the previous years (not just last year!) and every time they do such, Ateneo ends up not getting the title. Why us?!

Anyway, the team has been into much growing pains that you just have to empathize with them. Although UP always gets cheered by Ateneans and Lasallians prior to Ateneo-La Salle games, I think there would be a lot of empathy on NU. Yes, especially the Lasallians who celebrated on the upset last year.

The team still has the workhorse Edwin Asoro and I think they are still bound to win a game or two (but of course, it already came true because they are now 2-6!). This season’s NU upset victim is FEU so far (I just hope they also pull off an upset to La Salle so the greenies can have a taste of how it feels last year). This team has lots of potential. Asoro can score anywhere in the floor. He is a great defender as well (he won the award last year). Jahnke is a decent guard. If they just lessen their three-pointers, this team can pull another upset (La Salle please! La Salle please!).

Strengths: Upset Factor, Experienced Players
Weaknesses: Inconsistency, Limited Upside, Low Fan Support

There you have it. The Season 71 First Round Analysis.

1st Round Mythical Five:
Chris Tiu (Ateneo)
JV Casio (La Salle)
Rico Maierhoffer (La Salle)
Jervy Cruz (UST)
Rabeh Al-Hussaini (Ateneo)

1st Round MVP: Chris Tiu (Ateneo)

Random Thoughts

• Some people might say that Ateneo is already or has already peaked. However, I beg to disagree on this one. The rookies (even Ryan Buenafe) have not shown their potential yet. Furthermore, there are still some lapses in their games (like blowing a big lead). If Ateneo has peaked, then La Salle has also peaked. Both had five-game winning streaks in the first round and after losing, they have managed to win their next games as well. The only game that separates the two teams is their first encounter where Ateneo won. Other than that, they have performed exceptionally well. La Salle, I think, even performed better in their winning streak because they had convincing wins featuring their bench that performed above expectations. If there is a team that is more bound to fall from peaking, that would be La Salle because players that blossom for the first time in their college basketball tend to have a slump later on unless you are Tenorio, Cortez or Ritualo. Nevertheless, the Green Archers are still the defending champs so I have to say that they still are the most likely to end with the title.
• This year’s Men’s Basketball Tourney has a lot of issues in officiating and rules. I am actually accustomed to complaining on bad calls by NABRO so I am not expecting it to change. However, here are some rulings that were controversial this year:
o La Salle getting penalized for not wearing the ID. As much as La Salle would complain on it, I think it was just proper for them to get a penalty. The rule is in the UAAP rulebook and if the UAAP wants to have a stronger foothold on fair play, they should uphold it. The crucial mistake though was, Pido Jarencio’s UST Tigers were not penalized. Another thing was, the penalty should have been in cash rather than a technical freethrow. But then, I am not sure if the rulebook states a cash penalty either. It just felt more appropriate. But if the technical freethrow was in the rulebook, then La Salle should not complain on it. There is no way that La Salle should ask for a call reversal because there really was a violation of rules. I just don’t like the idea of whining for getting penalized because the violation really occurred in the first place.
o Ateneo’s Kirk Long and Vince Burke wore a uniform that had no patches in their game against UP. Violation of rules? Yes. Forfeiture of game? No. It is not even stated in the rulebook that wearing the wrong uniform would equate to a forfeiture of the game. I took this from www.bleachersbrew.blogspot.com:
D. Uniforms
1. In all events except swimming, athletics, judo, table tennis, lawn tennis, and badminton, the surnames of the athletes shall be indicated at the back of their shirts with the lettering at least two (2) inches wide but not more than two (2) inches high.
2. UAAP logo may be required or not per sport.
3. If required, the UAAP logo must be bigger than that of the corporate sponsor. Manufacturer’s trademark is not considered/counted as corporate logo.
4. As for the school, it can be a logo or the school name.
5. Within each team, the athletes should wear the same uniform.
6. In the event of any violation not attributable to the school, they should be given a grace period of fourteen (14) calendar days within which to rectify the error. After this period, non-compliant athletes cannot be fielded, the team loses by default.
o There is a grace period of 14 days to fix it. Those that are complaining that there should be forfeiture just like what happened in NCAA should not equate this instance to that because what we are following is the UAAP rulebook. If we go by the logic that NCAA removed the win from San Beda (is that even called logic?), then we can follow all sorts of rulebooks to create a new violation. In short, we are not being fair that way. UP did the right thing by not complaining.
o UE’s complaint on FEU was a bit idiotic. If they noticed the issue during the game, why didn’t they complain then? It destroys the sport whenever games are won on the boardroom. It just added complications to a game that was already finished. I just hope UAAP makes a ruling of allowing complaints like that during the games only. Nonetheless, that is not the ruling right now, so they had to make a discussion of which. It just sucks when instances like this happens. I remember some years ago when a La Salle win was reversed because they did not really beat the buzzer. Anyway, UE learned their lesson this time. UAAP was right in doing such.